Your day-ahead look for April 18, 2025

It’s Easter. Traditional markets are closed in many parts of the world and plenty of people are taking a break from work, and that’s keeping crypto markets in check as well. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the biggest, most active cryptocurrencies, has gained less than 0.1% in the past 24 hours with bitcoin (BTC) up just 0.1%.

That’s a pretty muted response to calls from President Donald Trump for the removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump criticized Powell over his reluctance to cut interest rates, further adding to the economy uncertainty that has left bitcoin treading water and seen Wall Street piling onto gold.

Trump, on his social media platform Truth Social, said Powell was “too late” in lowering interest rates, saying his “termination cannot come fast enough!” The President’s words come after Powell said the central bank sees unemployment and inflation rising because of the tariffs Trump imposed on most other countries.

The tit-for-tat has further raised uncertainty, to the point the S&P 500 closed the shortened trading week up just 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.1%.

“Right now, markets are extremely reactionary to White House decision making and are poised to remain that way for the foreseeable future,” Ira Auerbach, head of tandem at Offchain Labs and former head of digital assets as Nasdaq, told CoinDesk.

“Trump’s push for rate cuts amid tariff-driven inflation risks could reignite bitcoin’s original ‘hedge against eroding purchasing power’ narrative. Its recent risk-off behavior may be short-lived as monetary policy uncertainty intensifies.”

For the time being, though, the hedge against currency debasement and uncertainty appears to be gold. The precious metal’s recent bull run has meant that, over the last 20 years, it’s outperforming the S&P 500. That’s including dividends.

For crypto investors, signals are mixed. While on the macro front uncertainty reigns, under the Trump administration regulatory outlook has been improving and institutions have shown more comfort with the space.

“It is probably sound to ‘let the dust settle’ as tariff implementations and bilateral negotiations unfold,” dYdX Foundation CEO Charles d’Haussy told CoinDesk. “Market participants’ consensus seems to signal central banks’ action past the summer.” Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 18: Pepecoin (PEP), a layer-1, proof-of-work blockchain, undergoes its second halving, reducing block rewards to 15,625 PEP.
  • April 20, 11 p.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — opBNB mainnet hardfork.
  • April 21: Coinbase Derivatives will list XRP futures pending approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
  • April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on “Key Considerations for Crypto Custody“.
• Macro
  • April 18, 10 a.m.: Argentina’s Torcuato Di Tella University releases April consumer confidence data.
    • Consumer Confidence Prev. 44.1
  • April 22, 8:30 p.m.: Statistics Canada releases Mach producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 4.9%
  • April 22, 6 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled “Transmission of Monetary Policy.”
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
  • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Treasure DAO is discussing handing authority to the core contributor team to wind down and shut down Treasure Chain infrastructure on ZKsync and manage the primary MAGIC-ETH Protocol-Owned Liquidity pool given the “crucial financial situation” of the protocol.
• Unlocks
  • April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $314.23 million.
  • April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating supply worth $84.4 million.
  • April 18: Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) to unlock 6.73% of its circulating supply worth $10.72 million.
  • April 18: UXLINK (UXLINK) to unlock 11.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.52 million.
  • April 18: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.37% of its circulating supply worth $10.03 million.
  • April 22: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $126.7 million.
  • April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $20.74 million.
  • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $156.87 million.
  • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.32 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
  • April 22: BNB to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences:

• CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
• April 22-24: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok)
• April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai)
• April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow)
• April 24: Bitwise’s Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York)
• April 26: Crypto Vision Conference 2025 (Manilla)
• April 26-27: Harvard Blockchain in Action Conference (Cambridge, Mass.)
• April 27: N Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv)
• April 27-30: Web Summit Rio 2025
• April 28-29: Blockchain Disrupt 2025 (Dubai)
• April 28-29: Staking Summit Dubai
• April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador, El Salvador)
• April 29: IFGS 2025 (London)

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• The memecoin trading frenzy doesn’t appear to over quite yet. Since token-launch protocol Pump.fun introduced its trading platform PumpSwap in March, volumes have skyrocketed.
• According to Artemis data, Solana-based Pump.fun was seeing roughly $110 million of trading volume a day before the PumpSwap debut. That figure exploded to $650 million on April 17, with $444 million being traded on PumpSwap.
• Daily transaction volumes on the platform now top 40,000, roughly double the figures seen before PumpSwap’s launch, Dune data shows.
• The heightened trading volume helped Pump.fun’s 24-hour revenue top that of layer-1 network Tron, bringing in roughly $2 million over the period. The figure is also above that of platforms like Hyperliquid and Aave.
• Outside of Solana, other networks have seen their share of trading activity. Even Nasdaq-listed exchange Coinbase found itself embroiled in alleged front-running after three wallets bought its “Base is for everyone” token before the launch was announced.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.69% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $84,550 (24hrs: +0.30%)
• ETH is up 0.15% at $1,587.85 (24hrs: -0.36%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1% at 2,460.30 (24hrs: +0.2%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.98%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0069% (7.5927% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.38
• Gold is down 0.54% at $3308.8/oz
• Silver is down 1.55% at $32.42/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +1.03% at 34,730
• Hang Seng closed +1.61% at 21,395
• FTSE closed Thursday at 8275.66.
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.63% at 4935.34
• DJIA closed on Thursday -1.33% at 39,142
• S&P 500 closed +0.13% at 5282.7
• Nasdaq Composite closed -0.13% at 16,286.45,
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.36% at 16,286.45
• S&P 40 Latin America is up 1.64% at 2,383.75
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.13% at 5,312.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.02% at 18,380
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.31% at 39,329

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 63.91 (-0.18%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.019 (0.54%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $44.32
• Total Fees: 6.01 BTC
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,280
• BTC priced in gold: 25.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.23%

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $317.20 (1.78%), down 0.30% at $316.35 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175.03 (1.64%)
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.36 (-1.41%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.66 (2.76%), up 0.16% at $12.68
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.46 (1.57%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.63 (0.61%), up 0.29% at $6.65
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.51 (3.16%), up 0.27% at $7.53
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.04 (1.09%), up 0.42% at 12.09
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.49 (4.79%), up 2.60% at $33.33
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.58 (-1.64%), up 4.98% at $38.40

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $ 106.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $ 35.5 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $ 0 million
• Cumulative net flows: $ 2.26 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.31 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

While You Were Sleeping

• U.S. Will Abandon Ukraine Peace Efforts if No Progress Made Soon, Rubio Says (Reuters): After Paris talks, the Secretary of State said Washington may shift focus unless it sees within days that a deal is achievable in the next few weeks.
• Ukraine Says It Has Signed the Outline of a Minerals Deal With the U.S. (CNBC): The memorandum of intent signed Thursday will serve as the basis for what Scott Bessent says is an 80-page agreement that will be signed by April 26.
• HashKey Capital to Debut Asian XRP Tracker Fund With Ripple as Anchor Investor (CoinDesk): The HashKey XRP Tracker Fund will give professional investors XRP exposure.
• Deutsche Bank Sees More China Clients Moving Out of U.S. Assets (Bloomberg): Chinese commercial investors are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to eurozone bonds, Japanese debt and gold as concerns over U.S. trade policy mount, says Deutsche Bank’s Lillian Tao.
• Japan Does Not Manipulate FX to Weaken the Yen, Finmin Says (Reuters): Japan last intervened to strengthen the yen, not weaken it, the finance minister said in response to Donald Trump’s accusation it is manipulating the currency to boost exports.

In the Ether

 

The fund aims to simplify institutional access to XRP for cross-border payments, crypto investing in Asia.

Ripple will be an early backer of the fund. The investment deepens its strategic ties with HashKey, which already has Hong Kong-listed spot ETFs for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH).

The company will continue to partner with Ripple on additional financial products, Vivien Wong, a partner at HashKey Capital, said in a statement. One possibility includes tokenizing a money market fund on the XRP Ledger.

Ripple’s Asia-Pacific managing director Fiona Murray said the partnership with HashKey is part of a broader push to bring more regulated crypto products to institutions in the region.

AI is transforming forex trading, with algorithms executing 70-75% of trades. Human traders now focus on strategy and oversight, adapting to a fast-paced market.

Artificial intelligence is quietly transforming the world of forex trading. What began as a niche tool for quantitative funds has matured into an integral part of global currency markets. Today, algorithms execute a majority of spot forex trades, while human traders step into more strategic and supervisory roles. Behind the speed and efficiency lies a new market structure—one built as much on code as on capital.

Algorithms Now Run the Majority of Trades

According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the use of algorithmic and electronic systems in spot forex trading has grown sharply. As of 2022, roughly 70–75% of spot trades at major institutions are executed through automated platforms. This marks a significant rise from just a decade ago and reflects the widespread adoption of AI-powered trading strategies, particularly among banks and non-bank financial institutions.

These systems optimize trade execution by slicing large orders into smaller ones, reducing price slippage and reacting to market signals with superhuman speed. While some claims—such as execution costs falling 23% or error rates reaching 0.03%—circulated without verification, industry research does support the general trend: AI is reducing inefficiencies and automating away many of the risks inherent in manual execution.

Millisecond Markets and Fleeting Trades

Perhaps the most dramatic change is how quickly AI reacts to market news. While specific figures like JP Morgan’s alleged 47-millisecond reaction time aren’t confirmed in public reports, high-frequency trading systems are known to operate on timescales well below one-tenth of a second. Algorithms now parse economic releases and price fluctuations in real time, adjusting positions within moments.

As a result, the average holding time for some AI-driven forex trades has shrunk to seconds. Where human traders once held positions for hours or even days, modern systems execute and exit within milliseconds. This high-speed environment offers efficiency and liquidity—but also makes it nearly impossible for human traders to compete on execution speed alone.

Traders Evolve, Not Vanish

Despite fears that AI would eliminate jobs, the human trader is far from obsolete. Instead, the role has shifted. Rather than spending most of their time manually executing trades, traders now function more like algorithm managers and risk engineers. They monitor performance, fine-tune parameters, and intervene during market anomalies.

Recent trends confirm this evolution. Institutions report that traders now spend less than a third of their time on execution, focusing instead on strategy, compliance, and supervising automated systems. Human expertise still matters—especially in volatile or illiquid conditions where judgment and experience outperform algorithms.

Global Regulators Step In

With the growing influence of AI in trading, regulators are actively working to ensure transparency and stability. In early 2025, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission introduced rules requiring firms to test AI-driven models under various conditions and maintain human oversight over automated decision-making.

Similarly, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority has emphasized governance and accountability in algorithmic trading, while the European Union’s MiFID III reforms and forthcoming AI Act aim to classify trading algorithms as “high-risk” systems. These frameworks are designed to encourage innovation without sacrificing market integrity, requiring explainability, documentation, and safeguards.

A New Era of Human-AI Synergy

As AI continues to embed itself into the fabric of forex trading, the shift is undeniable—but it’s not about replacing humans with machines. Instead, it’s about integrating AI’s speed, precision, and data-processing power with human judgment, oversight, and strategy. The most competitive firms are those that understand this synergy: deploying algorithms to execute at scale while maintaining a firm grip on governance, risk, and adaptability. This quiet revolution isn’t flashy, but it’s redefining the market—from how trades are executed to how traders themselves operate in the age of intelligent automation.

Image source: Shutterstock

Digital asset fund inflows reached $644 million, ending a five-week outflow streak. Bitcoin led the recovery with $724 million in inflows, according to CoinShares.

Renewed Optimism in Crypto Markets

In a welcome turnaround for digital asset markets, recent data indicates a significant shift in investor sentiment. According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products experienced a notable influx of funds, totaling $644 million, effectively breaking a five-week trend of outflows. This marks a decisive change in market dynamics, as total assets under management have increased by 6.3% from their March 10th low.

Bitcoin Leads the Recovery

Bitcoin (BTC) emerged as the primary beneficiary of this renewed optimism, attracting $724 million in inflows. This substantial movement ended a sustained period of outflows that amounted to $5.4 billion over five weeks. Conversely, short-Bitcoin products faced their third consecutive week of outflows, totaling $7.1 million, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness.

Regional Contributions to Fund Flows

The resurgence in fund flows was predominantly driven by the United States, which accounted for $632 million of the total inflows. However, the positive sentiment was not confined to the U.S. alone. Switzerland, Germany, and Hong Kong also contributed to the inflows, with figures reaching $15.9 million, $13.9 million, and $1.2 million, respectively.

Mixed Sentiment in Altcoin Markets

Despite the overall positive trend, the altcoin market exhibited mixed results. Ethereum (ETH) experienced significant outflows of $86 million, making it the hardest-hit asset. Other altcoins such as Sui, Polkadot, Tron, and Algorand also saw outflows, albeit on a smaller scale. In contrast, Solana (SOL) recorded $6.4 million in inflows, with Polygon (MATIC) and Chainlink (LINK) seeing more modest gains of $0.4 million and $0.2 million, respectively.

The consistent daily inflows throughout the past week, following a 17-day streak of outflows, suggest a renewed investor confidence in the digital asset sector. This change in sentiment could potentially influence market trends in the coming weeks.

For more detailed insights, visit the CoinShares blog.

Image source: Shutterstock

Explore how Stacks (STX) enhances Bitcoin by enabling smart contracts and DApps, leveraging Bitcoin’s security while expanding its functionalities through a unique layer-2 network.

The Stacks network positions itself as a transformative layer-2 solution for Bitcoin (BTC), integrating the capabilities of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) into the Bitcoin blockchain. As reported by blog.bitfinex.com, Stacks is designed to leverage Bitcoin’s inherent security and robustness while introducing features often associated with platforms like Ethereum.

Enhancing Bitcoin with Layer-2 Technology

Operating as an independent layer, Stacks allows developers to build on Bitcoin without altering its core structure. This provides an extended environment that capitalizes on Bitcoin’s decentralization and trustless nature. Stacks introduces an independent token, STX, which incentivizes block production and network maintenance, distinct from Bitcoin’s primary chain. This model addresses the need for incentivized validation, maintaining Bitcoin’s simplicity at the base layer.

Unlike other scalability solutions like the Lightning Network, Stacks maintains a permanent state, essential for applications requiring data consistency, such as smart contracts, contrasting with Lightning’s transaction-focused, ephemeral design.

Bitcoin in Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Stack’s functionality turns Bitcoin into a productive asset in the DeFi space without third-party custodians or asset wrapping on non-Bitcoin chains. By anchoring to Bitcoin’s security and utilizing a token-based incentive structure, Stacks expands Bitcoin’s role from a store of value to a base for decentralized financial products. This setup fosters innovation on Bitcoin’s network without introducing the complexity and security risks of adding programmability directly to Bitcoin’s core protocol.

Role of the STX Token

The STX token is central to the Stacks ecosystem, offering incentives and resources for network participants to secure and grow the layer-2 platform. Unlike Bitcoin, STX supports Stacks’ functionalities and economic incentives, including securing the network through Proof of Transfer (PoX). STX holders can “stack” their tokens to earn Bitcoin rewards, helping maintain the integrity of the Stacks blockchain and indirectly supporting Bitcoin’s layer-2 ecosystem.

STX is crucial for executing transactions and deploying smart contracts on Stacks, covering transaction fees to ensure network operation and security. This mirrors Ethereum’s use of ETH for gas fees, making STX integral to the network’s functionality and utility.

STX Tokenomics

Launched in 2021, the STX token began with an initial supply of 1.32 billion tokens, strategically distributed to foster ecosystem growth. The allocation included a 2017 token sale, contributions to the Stacks ecosystem fund, Hiro PBC, and the Stacks Foundation. The inflation rate, initially set at 10%, is scheduled to decrease by 0.5% per year until stabilizing at 2.5%, aiming to reward early adopters while preserving a controlled token supply.

This predictable tokenomics structure incentivizes network participation and supports sustainable ecosystem growth, positioning Stacks as a flexible, Bitcoin-powered environment for decentralized innovation.

Image source: Shutterstock

Canaan Inc. reveals a 9.8% increase in Bitcoin production for March 2025, with expansion plans in North America aiming to boost mining capacity significantly.

Canaan Inc. (NASDAQ: CAN), a leader in cryptocurrency mining solutions, has announced its latest updates for Bitcoin production and mining operations as of March 2025. According to PR Newswire, the company reported a notable 9.8% increase in Bitcoin mining output compared to the previous month, mining a total of 90 Bitcoins in March.

Expansion in North America

The company has continued its strategic expansion into North America, adding 0.32 exahash per second (EH/s) to its installed computing power. This expansion is part of their collaboration with partners such as Mawson Hosting LLC and another unnamed partner in Pennsylvania and Texas, which is set to increase Canaan’s mining capacity by an additional 4.7 EH/s once fully operational.

Product Development and Innovation

Canaan’s commitment to innovation is evident in their recent completion of the tape-out process for the next-generation Avalon A16 mining machine. This machine promises enhanced mining efficiency and user experience. The company plans to release real-world data and sample units to clients after comprehensive system testing, ensuring reliability and performance in real-world conditions.

Operational Metrics and Financials

As of the end of March, Canaan owned 1,408 Bitcoins on its balance sheet. The company reported a deployed hashrate of 6.60 EH/s and an operating hashrate of 5.97 EH/s. They achieved an average revenue split of 58.6% and maintained an all-in power cost of $0.043 per kWh.

Global Mining Projects

Canaan’s global mining footprint includes active projects in regions such as America, Canada, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, and the Middle East, with a combined estimated total computing power of 8.11 EH/s. This diverse geographical presence underscores Canaan’s ability to leverage global opportunities and optimize its mining operations.

Strategic Outlook

Nangeng Zhang, Chairman and CEO of Canaan, emphasized the company’s ongoing efforts to scale operations and enhance performance across its mining fleet. With the rapidly changing market conditions, Canaan remains focused on strategic growth, efficiency, and innovation to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

For more details, Canaan Inc.’s official update is available on PR Newswire.

Image source: Shutterstock

BitVMX represents a significant upgrade to Bitcoin’s smart contract abilities, enabling general-purpose computation and supporting advanced applications without altering the consensus protocol.

BitVMX is poised to revolutionize Bitcoin’s capabilities by introducing general-purpose computation on its base layer, without necessitating any changes to the consensus protocol. As reported by blog.bitfinex.com, BitVMX builds on the original BitVM concept, introducing a virtual CPU model that can execute and verify complex programs, including zero-knowledge proofs, through an optimistic verification method.

What Can BitVMX Add to Bitcoin’s Smart Contract Ecosystem?

The BitVMX upgrade for the Rootstock Bitcoin sidechain marks a significant step forward in enhancing Bitcoin’s programmability. By enabling the execution and verification of complex computations like zero-knowledge SNARK proofs, BitVMX facilitates a more advanced blockchain application environment. The upgrade utilizes a virtual CPU model that supports general-purpose computation through architectures like RISC-V. This approach allows computations to be challenged only when necessary, minimizing the on-chain load and enhancing scalability without risking Bitcoin’s base layer.

BitVMX’s challenge-response protocol uses hash chains to validate execution traces, simplifying the verification process and reducing computational overhead. This innovation makes it feasible to build rollups and sidechains on Bitcoin, with message linking using one-time signature schemes ensuring state preservation across transactions. This design enables the creation of Bitcoin-based systems with flexibility akin to Ethereum, without altering Bitcoin’s scripting language.

How Does BitVMX Work Under the Hood?

Operating as a virtual computing environment, BitVMX allows the execution and verification of complex programs on Bitcoin’s base layer using an optimistic verification model. It simulates general-purpose CPU architectures by encoding processor behavior in Bitcoin’s existing scripting language, maintaining compatibility with the network. Instead of running computations on-chain, BitVMX assumes their validity unless challenged, using an interactive challenge-response protocol to verify disputed computations.

The challenge-response mechanism is central to BitVMX’s efficiency and security. It verifies computations through a hash chain, identifying errors via binary search and executing specific steps on-chain if challenged. This reduces storage and processing demands on the blockchain, preserving Bitcoin’s security assumptions.

What Kind of Additional Programmability or Capabilities Can BitVMX Users Expect?

BitVMX expands Bitcoin’s programmability by enabling smart contract-like functionality without altering core consensus rules. This allows for the verification of zero-knowledge proofs directly on Bitcoin, enhancing privacy-preserving applications and trust-minimized systems. Developers can compile ZK proof verifiers into BitVMX-compatible code for on-chain verification, significantly expanding the potential for privacy tools and scalable rollups.

Additionally, BitVMX enables the creation of decentralized bridges and sidechain communication mechanisms. Rootstock plans to develop the “Union Bridge” using BitVMX to create a trust-minimized bridge between Bitcoin and the Rootstock sidechain. This facilitates seamless asset transfers and multi-chain applications while preserving Bitcoin’s decentralization.

Overall, BitVMX transforms Bitcoin from sound money into a broader computational substrate, encouraging an ecosystem of experimentation and specialization. Its modular architecture supports a wide array of advanced DApps, from complex financial contracts to decentralized oracles, while maintaining Bitcoin’s unique security model.

Image source: Shutterstock

Bitcoin faces pressure from weak fundamentals and macroeconomic volatility, with resilience around $80k suggesting a defense by long-term participants, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under significant pressure, with weak fundamentals and macroeconomic instability posing challenges, according to Glassnode. Despite these challenges, the cryptocurrency shows resilience around the $80,000 mark, indicating potential defense by long-term holders.

Market Overview

The Bitcoin market continues to navigate through volatility, as evidenced by a sharp sell-off followed by a rebound to $82,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its statistical low, hinting at a potential breakout from the current consolidation range. The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has fallen further to -$167 million, highlighting ongoing sell-side pressure. Although spot trading volume surged past $12 billion, it seems driven by reactive selling rather than new demand.

In the derivatives market, a multi-month downtrend persists, with open interest declining to $33.94 billion. Funding rates have slightly increased to $1.11 million per day. Meanwhile, the Perpetual CVD has dropped sharply to -$594 million, suggesting significant taker-driven sell pressure and liquidations. In the options market, volatility expectations have rebounded, and while open interest remains subdued at $21.77 billion, the volatility spread has turned positive at +0.18. The 25 Delta Skew remains elevated at 0.08, indicating strong hedging activity.

ETF and On-Chain Signals

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned negative once more, with a decline of $297 million, although weekly trading volume soared to $22.45 billion amid increased volatility. The ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio slipped to 1.23, slightly below its statistical band, suggesting ETF holders are testing cost basis levels near $80,000.

On-chain fundamentals remain weak, with active addresses and transfer volumes showing little strength, and fee volume declining to $458,000 per day, indicating low blockspace demand. Liquidity inflows remain subdued, with realized cap growth slowing to 0.80% per month. Short-term supply is gradually maturing into long-term holdings, while speculative activity declines, as evidenced by the Hot Capital Share dropping below statistical lows. Profitability metrics are also on a downtrend, with the Percent Supply in Profit at 76%, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) at 0.45, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 0.21.

Overall, Bitcoin’s market position is fragile due to weak fundamentals, declining profitability, and soft liquidity, making it susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. Nonetheless, the price resilience around $80,000 may be a constructive signal if broader market conditions stabilize.

For a more detailed analysis, visit the original report on Glassnode.

Image source: Shutterstock